A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
